The Denver Nuggets are hosting the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round of the Western Conference’s 4-5 matchup. This series features three of the NBA’s best in Nikola Jokic, James Harden, and Kawhi Leonard. Both teams enter the series with identical records at 50-32, with the season series being tied at two games apiece. Will Jokic and the Nuggets advance to the second round for the third straight season, or will the Clippers get past the first round for the first time since 2021?

Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets had a solid season with a record of 50-32 and ended the regular season on a three-game winning streak after firing head coach Michael Malone. Offensively, they have been one of the best teams in the NBA. They finished the season third in points per game, first in field goal %, fifth in three-point %, first in assists per game, and 17th in turnovers per game.

Denver was led by Jokic who had another stellar season becoming the third player in NBA history to average a triple double. He averaged 29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game in the regular season. Besides the Joker, they had five other players average double-digit points per game. If they will get past the Clippers, it will be because of their role players.

The Nuggets have three players on max contracts, Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. We know what Joker will do in this series. What will the “others” do? Aaron Gordon must be able to slow down Kawhi Leonard on the defensive end of the court. Gordon has the unique body type to slow down a player of Leonard’s caliber; long, strong player who can get to his spots.

Overall, the Nuggets have a talented starting five, but their bench leaves much to be desired. They were 27th in the league with only 26.4 bench points per game during the regular season. If Jokic gets into foul trouble and Murray’s shot isn’t falling, who will be the person that gets the offense going? That is the key to the Nuggets’ success in this series.

Los Angeles Clippers

The Los Angeles Clippers had a solid season as well. They ended the regular season on fire, winning eight in a row. They also sported one of the better offenses in the league. They finished 20th in points per game, sixth in field goal %, seventh in three-point %, seventh in free throw %, 23rd in assists per game, and 19th in turnovers per game.

Not only are they one of the dynamic offensive teams, but the Clippers are also an elite defensive squad. For the season they ranked fourth points allowed per game, eighth in opponent field goal %, fifth in opponent three-point field goal %, 20th in blocks per game, third in steals per game, 17th in rebounds per game, and third in defensive rating. The trio of James Harden, Norman Powell, and Kawhi Leonard had excellent seasons.

All three players averaged north of 20 ppg this season, with Harden leading the team with 22.8 ppg in the regular season. One of the “unsung” heroes of the season was Ivica Zubac, who will have his hands full in this series going against Jokic. “Big Zu” is one of the few centers that has the size and strength to defend down on the block and bang with the Joker. A large part of Jokic’s scoring is his ability to play bully ball and Zubac is one of the bigs in the league he can’t bully.

The Clippers finished the season winning 21 of their final 24 games. If they can pull off a game one upset and swing homecourt advantage in their favor, they will have a huge advantage when they return home. The Clippers were one of the best home teams in the regular season ending with a record of 30-11.

Their biggest question mark is can James Harden rewrite his playoff history. Historically, Harden hasn’t been his regular season self in the biggest spots. Whether it be turning the ball over almost constantly or his scoring efficiencies dropping, Harden must play better come playoff time. Lastly, but the elephant in the room, Kawhi must stay healthy. He has been the healthiest he has been in recent memory and playing like the best version of himself since 2020-2021.

Prediction

The Los Angeles Clippers will defeat the Denver Nuggets in this series, 4-2. Out of all eight series in the first round, this has the potential to be the best. The Clippers have the roster advantage, coaching advantage, and are entering this game hotter. Despite the history of “Playoff Harden” in the past, I believe this will be his best series since his time with the 76ers.

Nikola Jokic will dominate statistically; however, his efficiencies will be severely hampered with Zubac guarding him for the entirety of this series. Lastly, the Nuggets are a poor defensive team which will give the Clippers the to exploit their lack of desire on the defensive end.