The Oklahoma City Thunder took a commanding 3-1 series lead last night over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the NBA Western Conference Finals. With the final score, 128-126, it was the best game of the series thus far. How the game unfolded, when you look at the stats, tells a different story. Let’s jump straight into Game 4 of the series and find out what to expect for the rest of the series, no matter how long it goes.
Thunder’s Big 3 Show Out
The big three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren showed up in a big way last night. Combining for 95 of the teams 128 points. With SGA finishing with 40 points, nine rebounds, and 10 assists, his only “flaw” in the game is that he shot 13/30 from the floor, 43.3%. For the entire season, he shot under 45% in 25 of the 76 games he played. He is by far the Thunder‘s best player and needs to continue to play like it.
Jalen Williams bounced back from his disastrous Game 3 performance. J Dub only had 13 points on 33.3% shooting. In Game 4, he scored 34 points on an efficient 54.2%, including 6/9 from downtown. When it came in the clutch, Williams scored 14 points in the 4th on 5/7 shooting. The question mark I had on the Thunder was Chet Holmgren. He possesses the length and skill set to be a superstar. He, too, was massive down the stretch, scoring nine points in the 4th quarter.
Suppose you had told me that the Thunder’s big three scored 40, 34, and 21; I would have said to you that OKC wins by 15 points or more. That was not the case; OKC’s bench only scored 27 points, their second lowest of the series. We know one of the things that separates the Thunder is their depth. If the Thunder are going to complete the five-game sweep, their bench will be crucial for the rest of the series.
Dissapperance of Minnesota’s Stars Scoring
The biggest takeaway from this game is, what happened to Anthony Edwards? We knew going into this series that the Thunder’s perimeter defenders would be a big challenge against the 23-year-old superstar. However, going the whole first half with only two shot attempts is unacceptable. We saw Ant in Game 3 dominate with 30 points on a very efficient 12/17 from the floor. He needs to be aggressive if Minnesota has any chance of forcing a Game 6.
Julius Randle isn’t without blame, either. He has as many games in this series where he scored single digits as he has games where he scored 24 or more. He had been the perfect complimentary player next to Edwards through the first two rounds in turning around his playoff narrative. Then, in Game One, he was the only starter to play well. Just like Ant, in the biggest game of the season, he shot a terrible 1/7 and have five turnovers. His inconsistencies are one of the biggest reasons the Knicks shipped him out of town.
If you were to tell me that the Timberwolves’ bench would score 64 of the team’s 126 points, I would have said that Minnesota would have evened the series, and we have a best-of-three on our hands. The bench shot an insane 12/20 from three-point land. That is ridiculously hot and will be difficult for them to replicate in Game 5.
What to Expect the Rest of the Series?
What can we expect from the rest of the series? Well, it doesn’t get much weirder than last night. The Timberwolves became the first playoff team in NBA history to lose a game in which they had more rebounds, more assists, more free throws made, more free throws attempted, a higher field-goal percentage, a higher three-point percentage, and a higher free throw percentage than their opponent. That is unfathomable, but in the playoffs, weird things happen all the time.
Historically, out of the 296 teams that go down 3-1, only 13 of them have come back to win the series. Out of the 283 series winners, 105 of them won the series in six or more games after going up 3-1. I expect the Timberwolves to step up and show their backbone in Game 5 on Wednesday night, extending the series to a Game 6 back in Minnesota. Season on the line, Ant steps up, or at least he should.
Final Thoughts
The series is essentially over. I won’t put it past the Timberwolves to win the next two games and then lose in seven. If they approach it with a “one game at a time” mentality, this series could get interesting quickly. It just takes one game to instill a little doubt in a team. Maybe Edwards and Randle can show some fight and heart in Game 5. All in all, I think if the Thunder don’t close them out in five, there will be a Game 7.
