Intro: The Pittsburgh Pirates are hosting the Houston Astros in Game 1 of their two-game series. The Astros are coming off a 1-0 win against the Tampa Bay Rays, splitting the series 2-2. As for the Pirates, They are coming off a tough 6-4 loss against the San Diego Padres, losing the series 2-1. The pitching matchup is Paul Skenes for Pittsburgh and Lance McCullers Jr. for the Astros. Let’s jump straight into this game and cook up a winning slip!
Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Money Line |
| Houston Astros | +1.5 (-137) | Over 7.5 (-104) | +120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | -1.5 (+146) | Under 7.5 (-118) | -142 |
| Odds Are Subject to Change Date and Time: June 3rd, 2025 @ 6:40 PM EST | |||
Crucial Stats
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are coming off a nice 1-0 win against the Tampa Bay Rays. With a record of 32-27 on the season, Houston sits in 2nd place in the AL West. Offensively, the Astros are a middle-of-the-pact team. They rank 21st in runs, 13th in OPS, 9th in BA, 16th in TB, and 19th in HRs. Over their last ten games, Houston has a record of 7-3, including a 10-15 record on the road.
Defensively, Houston is an elite team. For the season, they rank 10th in runs allowed, 7th in OPSA, 2nd in batting average against (BAA), 6th in total bases against (TBA), and 3rd in errors. Lance McCullers Jr. will start the mound for the Astros. He has had a tough start to the season. In his five starts this season, he has a record of 0-1, a 5.89 ERA, 26 Ks, allowing a .260 BA, and a WHIP of 1.691. McCullers is coming off a nice performance against the Athletics: 6 IP, 12 Ks, and 3 ER. Houston will need him to stay sharp to secure the win in Pittsburgh.
In terms of their injuries and team leaders, the Astros are still without Yordan Alverez, who is still dealing with right-hand inflammation. We won’t see the Astros’ offensive firepower until he returns. Shortstop Jeremy Pena leads the team in BA (.309), OBP (.373), and hits (69), and Isaac Paredes leads the team in HRs (11) and RBIs (32). This is a team that has been treading water since Alverez’s injury and waiting for his return.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off a tough loss on the road against the San Diego Padres, 6-4. With a record of 22-38, they currently sit in 5th place in the NL Central. Could be worse, they could be the Rockies. In terms of their offense, the Pirates are one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball. They rank 28th in runs, 27th in OPS, 26th in BA, 29th in TB, and 29th in HRs. Over their last ten games, Pittsburgh has a record of 5-5, including a 13-16 record at PNC Park.
In terms of defense, the Pirates are an above-average team. They rank 16th in runs allowed, 11th in OPSA, 14th in BAA, 12th in TBA, and 21st in errors. The phenom Paul Skenes will start on the mound for Pittsburgh. He has been great despite a losing record. In his 12 starts, he has a record of 4-5, a 2.15 ERA, 77 Ks, a .187 ERA, and a WHIP of .916. Skenes is coming off a dominant performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks, 6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, and 7 Ks. If the Pirates get a normal performance from him, they will be in a great spot to win.
Regarding the Pirates’ injuries and team leaders, they are without catcher Joey Bart and first baseman Enmanuel Valdez. Star Oneil Cruz leads the team in HRs (12), Andrew McCutchen leads the team in BA (.264) and OBP (.368), and Bryan Reynolds leads the team in RBIs (34) and hits (54). With this team being so young, their superstar is Skenes. When he is on the mound, you can chalk in a quality start and need minimal offensive help to win.
Prediction
The Pittsburgh Pirates will defeat the Houston Astros and cover the 1.5-run spread in this game. Despite their lack of offense, they have better batting splits at home, .240 at home and .229 BA vs RHP. The Astros have terrible splits on the road, with a .226 batting average. What makes me willing to lay the 1.5 is their history compared to McCullers’ top three pitches: slider, changeup, and sinker. Against these pitches, Pittsburgh has three batters with a .240 or higher vs. sliders, five vs. changeups, and six vs. sinkers. The Pirates sail their way to a win at home in the series opener against the Houston Astros.
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