The Oklahoma City Thunder are hosting the Indiana Pacers in Game 5 of the NBA Finals tonight! The Thunder tied the series up in Indiana last Friday in Game 4. With the series now a best-of-three, this is anyone’s title to win. The Pacers are undefeated following a loss this postseason, but OKC has a 9-1 record at home this postseason. Will Indiana bounce back from a tough home loss, or will the Thunder take their first series lead of the Finals?
Thunder Await Series Lead
Despite the Oklahoma City Thunder being the overwhelming favorite in this series, OKC hasn’t had a series lead through the first four games of these NBA Finals. It hasn’t been because of their stars. The “big three” of the Thunder are combining for 68.9 points per game. The league’s MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has led the way averaging 32.8. It’s been astonishing to see how much their head coach, Mark Daigneault, has continued to place faith in their second unit.
Alex Caruso has been an unsung star in this series. The AC has been hot, averaging 14.8 PPG on 54.5%, 50%, and 83.3% shooting splits. His two-way impact has also been evident, averaging 2.5 steals per game and holding his opponents to 45.6% shooting, a 2.6% drop-off. However, it runs deeper than that. When he’s guarding a shot 15 feet or further, he allows a 31.1% shooting percentage, a 7.5% drop-off, and 29.9% from three-point range, a 7.9% difference.
Pacers’ Keeping Up the Pace
When the Indiana Pacers stole Game 1, I and the rest of the basketball were a little in shock. With no one outside of Indiana expecting their hometown team to win the series, the two teams are tied through four games. It’s the style this team has played with that has kept them in the race. Indy is a team that has played at one speed all season long, fast. Their relentlessness in pushing the pace of play is slowly taking a toll on the Thunder.
Their stars, Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, have had strong performances in the Finals despite their inefficiencies in scoring the ball. Siakam is averaging 18.8 PPG to lead Indy. What is notable is the differential in his shooting percentage from distance. What made the Pacers’ offense so deadly, besides their quick pace, was his ability to space the floor. Since he was traded to Indiana, he is shooting 38.8% from downtown. In the Finals, Siakam is shooting only 28.6% from three-point range. If the Pacers are going to pull off a Game 5 upset, he must be better from a distance.
Players to Watch Tonight
For the Thunder, Jalen Williams must be big-time tonight. His best performances this postseason have been on the road. Look in this series, averaging 18 PPG at home vs 26.5 PPG on the road. Being the second-best player on a championship-contending team can be both a blessing and a curse. It’s not the same pressure being the number two option. J-Dub must step up if the Thunder want to take their first lead in the Finals.
As for the Pacers, I know I chose him to be an X-Factor player in the Game 4 Preview, and he shot 3/10, but I am taking Myles Turner to bounce back tonight. On the road, he has been better, averaging 15.5 PPG vs 10.5 PPG at home. I am doubling down to spotlight him tonight and his performance. His shot-blocking and ability to stretch the floor have enabled the Pacers to effectively exploit dribble penetration and play the drive-and-kick game on offense while also defending the rim at a high level.
Who Wins Game 5??
With all that said, I am picking the Oklahoma City Thunder to win Game 5 and take a 3-2 series lead. From a larger perspective, the team that wins Game 5 when the NBA Finals are tied 2-2 has gone on to win the series 74% of the time, a 23-8 record. I expect a whole-team effort from the squad, which has been the best team all season long. SGA and the Thunder win a tight game, taking their first lead in the Finals.
Final Thoughts
These NBA Finals have been the best since 2019, when the Toronto Raptors captured their first title over the Golden State Warriors in six games. This series between the Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder has a real chance to go the distance: seven games. I can not wait for tipoff tonight! Who do you think takes Game 5? Will the Pacers pull off another road win, or will the Thunder protect their home court? Thank you for checking out my Game 5 Preview, and check out some of our other excellent content here at New Leaf News!
