Aaron Judge vs. Cal Raleigh has been an MVP battle for the ages. The margin between them feels genuinely razor-thin no matter which way you lean. We’ve rarely ever seen a battle this tight, and it could go either way. With all due respect to Shohei Ohtani, either one of these players would sleepwalk to the NL MVP award. The only reason one won’t get it is because the other one was so incredible as well. But which one should get it?

Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh Both Deserve an MVP

What Cal Raleigh did this year was nothing short of incredible. Aaron Judge, for the record, also had a terrific, historic season. He once again put up numbers like prime Barry Bonds, only he also won his first-ever batting title as a result. Pairing that with 50 home runs is almost unprecedented.

Raleigh knocked in 60 home runs, a catcher record and the most for a switch-hitter. Doing all that while also catching most days and enduring the wear and tear that includes is incredibly impressive and worthy of praise. It just might not be worthy of an MVP.

What Raleigh has working for him is the stronger narrative. That’s not to say his performance isn’t deserving, but he has the storyline to work with. Doing what he did as a catcher seems impossible, and his numbers are possibly being inflated a little bit because he is a catcher. Such offensive output would not be nearly as jarring for a corner outfielder or first baseman.

For evidence of Raleigh’s narrative buff, look no further than Sporting News giving the Seattle Mariners star the MLB Player of the Year award. The entire crux of this hinges on the fact that Raleigh did all this while being a catcher. To be fair, it’s impossible to quantify some of the difficult things catchers do, but take this blurb as an example.

“He also did not rest during the All-Star break, starting for the American League in Atlanta a day after coming away with an extra $1 million for winning the Home Run Derby,” SN’s Bill Trocchi explained. “He won the derby in dramatic fashion, advancing to the second round only by virtue of a tiebreaker that was decided by longest home run.” That’s impressive, but we’re really going to give the MVP to someone because they didn’t take a day off during the All-Star break?

Raleigh also has Judge voter fatigue. Aaron Judge doing what he did in 2025 is no longer a surprise. It’s expected of the New York Yankees star. He just hits over .300 with a ton of home runs and produces like no one else. His bar is unfairly high, and it would not surprise me one bit if voters decided to give the award to Raleigh because Judge has two MVPs and they’re tired of the Yankees star getting all the love.

But Judge is equally if not more deserving. He led baseball, not just the American League, in a ton of categories:

• fWAR
• bWAR
• Runs Above Average
• Wins Above Average
• Isolated Power
• Batting Average
• On-base Percentage
• Slugging Percentage
• OPS
• wOBA
• wRC+
• OPS+
• Offensive Rating

He was historically good at the plate, and Raleigh only leads Judge in home runs, RBI (which is a product of the offense around a player), and stolen bases, though neither player was an actual stealing threat. Plus, if you switch the ballparks around, Judge would actually have done better, so it’s not as if Yankee Stadium helped him.

According to BaseballSavant, if he played his games in Seattle, he would’ve had 54 expected home runs (as opposed to 52 in Yankee Stadium). If Raleigh played in New York, he would’ve recorded 54 expected home runs, so the parks didn’t do Judge any favors there. Plus, Judge spent a little bit of time on the IL, so his numbers are with a small stint on the bench and some time back in the lineup with a clearly ailing elbow. Clearly, both candidates are deserving.

The Right Choice for AL MVP

There’s no bad option here. Either Aaron Judge, who had another historic season at the plate, wins his third MVP or Cal Raleigh, who set literal records, gets his first. But the right choice is Judge. Raleigh winning wouldn’t be a glaring tragedy, but Judge has the better numbers.

One thing Raleigh has is the defensive argument. Being a catcher is hard, and Raleigh is a good one. But he’s not a great one. His metrics are mostly above or slightly below average, but he’s not an elite defensive catcher. Judge is an average outfielder.

But when you total up all the value they bring to the table, which is best done by fWAR, the gap is sizable. Catchers get a boost in fWAR, and right fielders get detracted from. So Raleigh being a decent catcher bumps his fWAR up a bit, and Judge being an average or worse right fielder actually hurts him. And yet, Judge is a full win higher (10.1 to 9.1).

There are things that fWAR cannot account for, such as pitch calling, game management, and all the off-field work that goes into preparing to catch. The physical toll it takes can’t be calculated, either. But is his perceived defensive advantage and the mythical, unknowable nature of how hard catching is enough to overcome the wide lead Judge has in everything else?

Based on the current perception, it apparently will be. Judge has his work cut out for him, but he’s the right pick in my eyes. That said, Raleigh’s inevitable MVP award won’t be undeserved.

Conclusion

In 2024, Bobby Witt Jr. had an excellent season. He only came away without an MVP because Aaron Judge was historic. In 2025, Cal Raleigh had an excellent season, but he might be able to do what Witt couldn’t. Maybe it’s because Judge wasn’t quite as great or that Raleigh was just that good, but it looks like Raleigh’s going to be the MVP. He just probably shouldn’t be.