The Atlanta Falcons are hosting the Miami Dolphins this week! The Dolphins are on a three-game losing streak and coming off one of their worst performances of the season, a 25-point loss to the Cleveland Browns. As for the Falcons, they would like to bounce back from last Sunday Night. Atlanta lost to the San Francisco 49ers, 20-10. Let’s dive into this game and cook up another winning slip!
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons Odds
| Team | Spread | Total | Money Line |
| Miami Dolphins | +7.5 (-112) | Over 44.5 (-114) | +330 |
| Atlanta Falcons | -7.5 (-108) | Under 44.5 (-106) | -420 |
| Odds Are Subject to Change Date and Time: 10.26.2025 @ 1:00 PM EST | |||
Crucial Stats
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a tough loss to the San Francisco 49ers on the road. Michael Penix Jr. was solid but left much on the field vs San Fran. Bijan Robinson wasn’t Superman, like he was against the Buffalo Bills. Robinson only accounted for 92 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. That’s a strong performance for most, but an underwhelming one for him.
While this offense is great at moving the ball, scoring is a different thing entirely. They rank 10th in passing yards per game and 4th in rushing yards per game, but 28th in points per game and 30th in offensive touchdowns scored. If the games were played between the 20-yard lines, the Falcons would be one of the best teams in the NFL.
Defensively, the Falcons are in a better spot than they were last season. In 2025, they rank 8th in points allowed per game, 1st in passing yards allowed per game, 19th in rushing yards allowed per game, 4th in offensive touchdowns allowed, 14th in sacks, and 7th in takeaways per game. Atlanta’s defense has already surpassed its halfway mark in terms of the total number of sacks it had last season.
Let’s turn to injuries. All eyes are on Michael Penix. He suffered a knee injury last week and has been limited in practice all week, and is questionable for Sunday. If he can’t play, they will turn to a familiar face in Kirk Cousins. This defense is slightly banged up with Divine Deablo, Jalon Walker, and Billy Bowman Jr. already ruled out vs the Dolphins.
Miami Dolphins
You want to talk about embarrassing losses, the Miami Dolphins are coming off a terrible loss to the Cleveland Browns, 31-6. Tua Tagovailoa was dreadful, with 12/23 passing for 100 yards and three interceptions. On the bright side, it can’t get much worse than that. What was once one of the most efficient offenses in the league has crumbled, ranking last in the NFL with 1.7 turnovers per game.
Defensively, they might be the worst team in the league. They rank 29th in OPPG, 11th in OPYDs, 32nd in ORUYDs, 28th in offensive touchdowns allowed, 21st in sacks, and 23rd in takeaways per game. That is a significant drop-off from where they were last season. This defense can’t fight itself out of a wet paper bag.
Regarding injuries, Miami has a handful entering this week’s game vs. the Falcons. They just placed TE Darren Waller on IR with a pectoral injury. However, the bulk of their injuries are on the offensive line, with seven players listed as out, six on IR. That is where this game will be won, on the line of scrimmage.
Prediction
I expect the Atlanta Falcons to come out and control both lines of scrimmage and cruise to a double-digit win. The Dolphins don’t have anything that would make me believe they would put up a fight against an average team. Even though 7.5 points is a lot, I am more than comfortable swallowing the points. Even if Penix doesn’t play, Cousins is a more than capable backup going against the worst defense in the NFL. Falcons win big at home and improve to 4-3 on the season.
