Through the first five games of the Western Conference Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a 3-2 series edge over the San Antonio Spurs. After a comfortable 127-114 win in OKC, the series heads back to San Antonio for a potential series-clinching Game 6. Will the two-time MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, punch the Thunder’s ticket back to the NBA Finals, or will Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs force a Game 7 back to Oklahoma City?
Western Conference Finals Through 5 Games
After a legendary Game 1, the series has been a back-and-forth affair. With the Thunder taking the following two games, the Spurs even the WCF, then OKC takes Game 5. When a series is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 wins the series 82% of the time, making the odds convincing despite both teams being neck and neck in talent. The Thunder will have their hands full going against a presumably super star with an edge after a poor performance.
Wembanyama Bound For a Bounceback
Wemby has been dominant in three of the five games, but is coming off his worst outing with just 20 points and six rebounds while shooting 4/15 from the floor. For as sensational as “The Alien” is, through games 3-5, he hasn’t been the dominant glass presence that he was in the first two games. After 21 and 17 rebound performances, Wemby has grabbed 18 rebounds since. That is distasteful for a player who is one of the best rebounders in the NBA.
I want to see Wemby come out of the gate with purpose and intent, making the Thunder feel him on both ends of the floor for 48 minutes. We’ve seen OKC decide to put Isaiah Hartenstein on him, which has led to success against the Spurs. It’s time to dominate his matchup and lead by example. Go out there tonight and set the tone!
How the Thunder Can Close it Out
The Oklahoma City Thunder will be shorthanded again tonight. They will be without Ajay Mitchell, who’s missed the past two games with a right calf injury, and Jalen Williams is questionable with a hamstring injury that has kept him sidelined the past three games. Despite OKC being 2-1 without J-Dub, he is definitely needed if they want to defend their NBA Title.
Alex Caruso has been the superstar role player for the WCF, averaging 17 ppg and shooting a rediculous 58% from three. Why is that ridiculous? Due to the fact that in the regular season, Caruso shot 29.3% from downtown. That is the highest rise in a player’s 3-point % in a postseason in NBA history. It always seems that the Thunder have a role player step up in a “next man up” scenario.
This is the moment that SGA should rise to the occasion. He’s the two-time MVP for a reason and is coming off a series-high 32-point scoring outbreak. In the 10 closeout games SGA has played in, he’s been sensational, averaging 29.8 ppg and 6.1 apg on an efficient 50.8 shooting percentage. This is his moment, and a player who has a claim to be the best player in the world should raise his play and will his team past one of their most dangerous opponents since the Indiana Pacers in last year’s Finals.
Spurs’ Keys to Forcing Game 7
Tonight needs to be the definition of a team win. The Spurs have wins by playing hellacious defense in Game 4 to even the series at 2-2, and by having an all-time Wembanyama performance and five other players scoring in double digits in Game 1. I want to put a spotlight on a player that will be key if they want to force the series back to OKC, Stephon Castle.
Castle is coming off a solid performance with 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists while shooting 7/11 from the floor and 3/5 from range. What has been his biggest issue as of late? His foul trouble. Castle has had five fouls in each of the past three games. Has it led to a dip in his minutes? Not yet, but he still needs to find a way to stay out of any foul trouble, which can be difficult against the Thunder.
Who Wins Tonight?
The San Antonio Spurs will win tonight and force a Game 7 back in OKC. We know role players play better at home, and I expect them to do so. I don’t expect Wemby to shoot 26.7% from the floor. I also don’t expect De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, and Dylan Harper to shoot a combined 7/32. That is horrendously bad, which is why I believe they will win tonight. Everyone comes back to reality, and there’s a regression to the mean.
Final Thoughts
Tonight will be an excellent game. It should be another back-and-forth game where both MVP candidates play close to their ceiling. The difference tonight will be that the home team’s role players will overshadow the Thunder’s tertiary players.
As always, thank you so much for checking out my thoughts and preview for Game 6 tonight between the Thunder and the Spurs! Be sure to check out our other amazing content here at New Leaf News! Thank you for making us part of your day, and look forward to seeing you again soon.
