The Indiana Pacers are hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 of the NBA Finals tonight! The Thunder evened the series after their 123-107 win this past Sunday in Game 2. With the Pacers stealing home-court advantage after their Game 1 victory, this is crucial for both teams. Will the Pacers continue to be a dominant team at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, or will OKC retake home court? Let’s dive into Game 3!
Pacers’ Elite Play at Home
It’s no secret that teams naturally play better at home. This postseason, the Pacers have been an elite team. Their home vs away splits are obvious. Indy scores more points and attempts five more free throws while turning the ball over less and forcing more turnovers at home compared to on the road. With a 6-2 record at home, that is the second-best record to the Thunder, who have played three more games.
The last time we saw this team at home, they blew out the Knicks 125-108 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Pascal Siakam was great in that game, scoring 31 points on an efficient 10/18 shooting, including 3/5 from downtown. He averages 22 points at home vs 19.5 points on the road. It doesn’t seem like a “big deal,” however, his scoring and shooting % should improve going back home.
The player that has gained the most stature in the league, Tyrese Haliburton, should also regress to the player he has been this postseason heading home. In the first two games of the Finals, Haliburton has eight turnovers. To put that into perspective, he turned the ball over a total of 10 times in the Eastern Conference Finals. It should be interesting to see how he and the role players look in Game 3.
Thunder Struggles on the Road
This postseason, the Oklahoma City Thunder haven’t been the dominant team they’ve been on the road. With a record of 4-3 on the road, this team scores 109 points per game on the road compared to 122 at home. That is demonstratively worse. Maybe that is the youth of this team being “exposed” in hostile territory on the road. If OKC wants to avoid a 2-1 hole, they need to bring the storm to Indiana.
Who will this team lead on? The heartbeat of this team is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA). He must show up and put out another MVP-type performance tonight. At home, he is averaging 31.8 points on 49.4% shooting and 34.6% from downtown. Would it shock you to find out that the MVP only averages 28.3 points per game on 44% shooting and 26.3% from three-point range on the road this postseason? His scoring remains, but his efficiency suffers.
A player that has yet to “explode” or make their mark in these Finals is Jalen Williams. He’s averaging 18 ppg on 33% shooting. Some of his best performances this postseason have been on the road, from a 34-point game in Game 3 against the Timberwolves to a 32-point performance in Game 3 against the Nuggets. He has shown the ability to step up on the road when the Thunder need it, and they will need it tonight.
X-Factors for Both Teams
The player I will keep my eyes on for a big game at home for the Pacers will be TJ McConnell. He has been very vital to the Pacers’ success this postseason. This postseason, in his limited minutes (17.9 MPG), he has averaged 9.0 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, and shot 51.9%. His stats aren’t eyepopping. However, he gives Haliburton the ability to rest on the sideline, and the offense still functions. TJ has been one of the best backup point guards in the NBA the past few seasons.
As for the Thunder, keep your eyes on Alex Caruso. He has been a monster in the first two games, averaging 15.5 ppg. The versatility he brings to this OKC team can’t be seen in the box score. His on-ball and off-ball pressure, ability to jump passing lanes, and quick hands have given the Pacers’ best offensive players trouble. Let’s see if he can stay hot on the offensive side of the floor in hostile territory.
Final Thoughts
Game 3 is the most important NBA game in Indiana since 2000. With a win, the Pacers take a 2-1 lead and continue their “Cinderella run.” If the Thunder win, they will continue their dominant season. With that being said, I am picking the Indiana Pacers to pull off the upset tonight. I’m at a loss to understand how different the Thunder have been on the road compared to at home. I believe that the home crowd of the Pacers will be rowdy and fuel this team to a big-time win in the Finals. The Pacers win an electric Game 3 and take a 2-1 series lead over the Thunder.
