There will be definite winners as a result of the Alaska Fiasco, otherwise known as the Trump/Putin Summit. Will it be Ukraine? You mean the country that was unprovokedly attacked by Russia three years ago and whose leader was not invited to the summit? No! How about the European Union (EU) and NATO, which have steadfastly supported Ukraine through this ordeal and have grave concerns about Russian aggression. Not on your life.

Two winners will come out of this meeting, which was preordained long before this summit. The biggest winner will be Russia, and by extension, Comrade Vladimir Putin. They have been controlling the narrative on this conflict since the beginning. And the other winner will not be the United States, but rather Donald J. Trump. And while Putin plays him masterfully, Trump will still benefit in a few significant ways.

Alaska as a Meeting Point

First, the fact that Putin is meeting Trump at a U.S. military base on American soil in Alaska is an abomination and snubs its nose at international law. Mr Putin has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes that his troops have committed during their invasion of Ukraine. Because of this, he rarely leaves Russia. Now he has landed at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, which houses 30,000 service members, their families, and civilian employees. A John Carre spy novel couldn’t spin a scenario this outrageous.

And Mr. Putin, who is being allowed clearance to enter the secure Alaskan military base, has not been shy about his desire to re-form the Soviet Union. And he said this about the United States three short years ago.

“The United States is a fading world power doomed to meet its imminent demise because of its ‘unipolar’ policy. It treats its allies as colonies. If they are exceptional, then that means that everyone else is second-class.”

Russia’s Expectations of the Summit

Putin expects to leave Alaska as the clear winner of the negotiations. For his agreement to a cease-fire in Ukraine, Putin will first demand that Russia retain possession of Crimea and also large sections of Eastern Ukraine, including areas that are not under Russian control. Putin will demand this as part of his re-formation of the Soviet Union. This region of Russia is also the breadbasket of Ukraine, an important food source for several developing countries.

He is also interested in obtaining some of the mineral rights in this region. This area is especially rich in titanium, lithium, graphite, nickel, and cobalt. And their other significant demand will be Ukraine’s exclusion from membership in NATO. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky desperately seeks this admission for Ukraine to prevent future Russian invasions.

Trump’s Expected Gain

Trump comes to Alaska looking for three things. The first is possession of some of the mineral rights in Eastern Ukraine. These were part of an original agreement made with Zelensky that fell through after Trump’s and vice-president JD Vance’s attack on the Ukrainian president in the Oval Office. And Putin stated that he is bringing along some Russian business representatives to Alaska who, no doubt, are along to entice Mr. Trump with some sweetheart land deals for future Trump Towers and golf courses.

However, Trump’s real motivation is to portray himself as a peacemaker. If he could broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, MAGA nation could start the nomination process for a Nobel Peace Prize for Mr. Trump almost immediately. The materialistic president would like nothing more than to place the prize in the Oval Office as a taunt to any Democrat who enters the room.

What’s Left for Ukraine, the U.S., the EU, and NATO

What’s left for Ukraine, the U.S., the EU, and NATO if an agreement is reached between the two superpowers? Not much. For Ukraine, there would be a cessation of hostilities, bringing temporary peace to the country. But they would become a much smaller country and lose valuable farmland and mineral rights. Plus, their goal of NATO admission would become nothing but a pipe dream. And there would be few guarantees that Russia wouldn’t launch another invasion of their country as they did in 2014 and 2022.

The U.S. would also walk away from Alaska mostly empty-handed. They would probably share some future mineral rights with Mr. Trump, and they would be unburdened from sending any more weapons to Ukraine. However, they would exist in a far less stable world.

And the EU and NATO received coal for Christmas. There are no guarantees for the future safety and security of Ukraine, Poland, Slovakia, Romania, and some of its other member nations. NATO members supportive of Ukrainian entrance into the alliance would have little to offer Zelensky. In addition, a post-conflict peace-keeping force favored by NATO is a non-starter for Putin.

What’s Ahead

It’s hard to say at this point. After the Alaska summit, Trump has talked about having Russia and Ukraine meet directly in the second round of talks. But that is up in the air. For now, it appears that Putin, Russia, and Trump hold most of the cards. And the world waits and worries.