Throughout March 2026, McDonald’s struggled after CEO Chris Kempczinski’s review of the chain’s latest burger, the Big Arch. Kempczinski referred to the Arch Deluxe-Big Mac fusion as a product, and customers discovered the edit after he took a bite. However, the Golden Arches’ latest slump is linked to rising beef costs.
As the US-Iran War entered its 6th week, US ranchers are experiencing a cattle shortage. McDonald’s and its competitors are strategizing how to market their chicken menu items for the summer. Will it be enough to sustain the world’s largest burger chain?
How Beef Prices Rose to a Premium Grade
Fast-food businesses and grocers alike have witnessed the cost of beef surge to $6.73 per pound. While a majority of the world wants to blame the current war, the crisis has existed since 2016. The US Department of Agriculture detected that cattle herds were shrinking in July 2025, for the first time in 75 years. They projected a 4% decline, followed by another 2% in 2026. Due to Donald Trump’s tariffs, beef imports were affected, with Brazil facing a 76% increase.
The USDA also executed a livestock blockade on Mexico as a precaution during the screwworm parasite outbreak. According to Utah cattle producer Brady Blackett, herds are shrinking due to heavy beef consumption. “There’s a healthy competition for cattle, and there’s not enough of them to fulfill the demand. And so it has driven prices to historic heights,” he informed NPR.
McDonald’s has spread its branding worldwide, making the mega-chain the largest buyer for beef producers. The restaurant headquarters reported that over the past 3 years, they have purchased more than 700 million pounds annually to maintain a steady supply.
When September 2025 arrived, US consumers discovered that their demand had increased, driving up the prices of their meals. Any dishes that included beef forced burger chains, steakhouses, butcheries, and local restaurants to raise their cost. Many experienced that the expenses they incurred did not always justify the amount of food they were served, coining the term “shrinkflation”.
Blackett then explained that the US is not prioritizing rebuilding cattle reproduction, even before Trump was re-elected. In 2022, climate change caused a major heatwave across the country. 60% of cattle herds were affected by the droughts, forcing ranchers to buy expensive feed for their fields, which couldn’t replicate the herds’ natural food source.
After Trump allied with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the US-Iran War caused oil prices to soar. St. Thomas’ economics professor, Tyler Schipper, explained that the cost of fuel correlates with the cost of groceries because food relies on shipment transportation.
The US, for example, relies on diesel trucks. “Pretty much everything you buy off the shelves is delivered by a truck,” he told ABC. “It’s the mechanism that takes an energy crisis in the Middle East and feeds it into other prices.” McDonald’s yearly inventory and supply costs for a single store can cost between $500,000 to $1.2 million.
McDonald’s Plan for the Poultry Summer
Kempczinski’s Big Arch review became a popular meme, immortalizing his McMuckbang mistake. Competing burger chains, including Burger King, mocked his promotion by taking larger bites of their signature items. The Golden Arches brushed their critiques aside as the fast-food industry is gearing up for the affordable protein, chicken.
The National Restaurant Association reported that the protein’s price has slightly risen, but it is lower in cost than beef. With the US restricted to small herds, McDonald’s and others are adapting to the situation.
“Because of tight supply,” said Advanced Economics Solution president Bill Lapp, “[Some operators] are starting to introduce a variety of chicken items this summer. The hopes are that they will take away some of the pain that higher beef prices are causing.”
McDonald’s previously shared their 3-part plan for marketing its items on Feb. 12. Chief Restaurant Experience Officer Jill McDonald was proud that the relaunch of the Snack Wraps and the rebranded Crispy Chicken Sandwich were a hit in 10 markets back in 2025. She revealed that the Chicken phase includes testing a Deluxe Grilled Chicken Sandwich, bone-in wings (possibly the Mighty Wings), and McCrispy Strips with new flavor combinations.
